AIPCE predicts that total supply will fall by 7% in 2022 to 11.6 million tonnes, with imports and domestic production set to decline further.
The EU’s dependence on imports now accounts for more than 70% of its total seafood needs.
According to the annual report on bony fish by the Association of European Fish Processors and Traders (AIPCE-CEP), the EU has been heavily dependent on seafood imports for many years and this situation continues to grow. In 2021, the region’s self-sufficiency fell to its lowest level on record.
According to AIPCE, due to a decline in EU catches and the UK’s withdrawal from the EU trade bloc, EU seafood production fell in 2021, with self-sufficiency reaching an all-time low of 35%, compared to a 10-year average of over 42%.
And this year, the EU seafood self-sufficiency rate is expected to reach 33%.
Of the total 12.5 million tonnes of supply in 2021, 9 million tonnes, or 72%, were imported, while domestic supply in the EU fell to 3.5 million tonnes.
For 2022, AIPCE forecasts a 7% drop, bringing total supply to 11.6 million tonnes, with imports and domestic production weakening.
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While the severe impact of Covid-19 in Europe appears to have eased, supply chain issues are still an obstacle to a return to pre-pandemic trading conditions, according to the AIPCE.
These pressures have now been exacerbated by unprecedented increases in energy and fuel prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Rising prices on global food markets are impacting the cost of raw materials and inputs.
EU sanctions on Russia have also made it more difficult to source seafood from Russia, and processors are facing a period of significant uncertainty that is complicating planning and investment decisions.
In 2022, processors will face further challenges from rising fuel prices, energy costs and the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro.
“All of these issues are impacting the supply and receipt of raw materials for processing and final consumption in the EU,” said Mike Turnhout, fisheries and trade expert at the Dutch Fisheries Federation (Visfederatie).
Imports are growing
More European consumers are looking for healthy food from natural sources, the report says, and this presents a positive outlook for the seafood industry. But the analysis shows that imports from abroad are needed to meet consumer demand.
Whitefish, especially Alaska pollock, is a good example of the EU’s 100% dependence on the United States, China and Russia for its supply.
The EU’s total Alaska pollock stock in 2021 – which was supplied by imports – was 808,000 tonnes. The United States accounted for 38% of the total, followed by China with 35% and Russia with 25%.
More than 95% of pollock imported into China comes from Russia, according to the AIPCE-CEP.
Similarly, the EU is heavily dependent on other countries for cod liver oil, importing 95% of its needs.
In 2021, the EU accounted for just 5%, or 41,000 tonnes, of the cod liver oil catch. It imported the other 850,000 tonnes, mainly from Norway, Iceland and Russia.
“In the case of Alaska pollock and cod liver oil, we need imports to meet demand,” Turnhout said.
With various EU sanctions in place, the UK and the US have replaced Russia. “This change in origin for the product has been seen before. But for Alaska pollock, it is difficult to get it from countries other than Russia.”
Despite its reliance on imports, the EU is determined to increase domestic production to maximise its seafood supply.
“We need to step up our efforts to improve fisheries and aquaculture production in the EU, because we need raw materials for the processing industry. We also have to consider the increasing competition for seafood imports from around the world,” Turnhout said.
